Ok, it’s really not that hard to grock.

so it’s been four days since the coup and bangkok really seems to be about the same .. honestly by the evening of the coup, i didn’t see much difference in things. we are still under a military government, but that should probably transition away in the next two weeks. spain is the only country to maintain a travel advisory, but they said they would lift it by monday if there are no problems.

i guess the only thing that does stand out are the constant rumors. friday there was supposed to be a counter-coup demonstration, it happened but didn’t turn out to be much. there were rumors that the government would turn off sms traffic to keep people from mobilizing, but this sure hasn’t happened … our new airport is scheduled to open this thursday. it’s going to be the biggest single-terminal airport in the world, will be interesting to see if all goes smoothly with the transitional government in place.

the whole coup has a very thai flavor to it. nobody was really hurt or killed, citizens have been handing out flowers and food to the soldiers and the newspapers are even reporting that soldiers are being ordered to smile and look non-threatening.

michael send me this on the role of the king in the coup and in thai politics in general, does a rally good job of describing the situation.

so i know i kept saying that i would start this blog up again someday … first i kept putting it off until i got dsl at home, then i just kept being lazy about it. all of a sudden i realize that i’ve been in thailand for over a year, gone on tons of trips and have hardly taken any pictures or posted at all. finally i figured that today’s military coup was a good reason to post some stuff.

the coup happened last night around 11pm or so, which is well past my bedtime so i didn’t find out about it until 4:30 when i happened to wake up to pee and noticed i had 6 sms and 4 missed calls on my cell phone. nobody in thailand really seemed all that surprised or worried about it, in fact most people seemed happy. our prime minister technically resigned about 6 months ago, but had pretty much refused to leave office. he’s been called the “caretaker-prime-minister” … it’s all something that i don’t really quite understand. he has been able to win a big majority of the vote in the past few elections, but that vote mostly comes from people in the villages who he hands out cash to (literally). pretty much any educated person seems to be against him.

this whole situation here, combined with that fool who managed to get so many votes in usa has made me think more and more about how good of an idea a democracy is. i do really think that capitalism is a great system, that’s something else. sometimes i think tho that a country would be served by a group of intellectuals.

the yoga studio was closed today in the morning, so i pretty much sat and read news from 5-10am, then went and practiced yoga, got a hair cut, saw the al gore movie “an inconvenient truth”, did some shopping, pretty normal things. there were noticeably fewer people out and there were soldiers all over the place with yellow ribbons on their guns to show allegiance to the king, but it was generally pretty normal.

luke with soldiers during the sept 20, 2006 coup … near MBK center

i found this posting on the website 2 bangkok which pretty much describes the coup process here … nothing like what movies sometimes display happening in other countries.

What a coup is like in Thailand - 05:41, September 20, 2006

A coup in Thailand does not mean that everything comes to a stop for an extended period. During Thai coups and even outright paralysis of top Thai governments organs in past decades, the Thai bureaucracy remained in place providing all basic government services through days and weeks of crisis. During this present incident mobile phone and internet connections were never offline (except for when some sites were overwhelmed by heavy traffic). International broadcast media was cut–most likely for fears that the tenacious Thaksin would attempt a speech that would then find its way back to his rural supporters on television.

Patriotic images of the King were used in conjunction with announcements from the new regime to show that its activities were not being made at the expense of royalty. Even the junta’s name, “Committee for Democratic Reform under the Monarchy as Head of State,” emphasizes this. Using royal imagery and the prompt audience with the King at midnight Tuesday is intended to pacify die-hard rural Thaksin supporters who might otherwise oppose the new order.

Bangkok covers a large area and most of the overt military activity is only happening in a small area that houses government offices far downtown near the old part of the city. In addition to this there is a military presence at broadcast media outlets around town and at key intersections in the city. Business and tourism areas such as Silom, Sathorn, and Sukhumvit should not see much disruption. While traffic last night was lighter than normal from our vantage point in northwestern Bangkok, there was a continuous flow of vehicles along Ratchadapeisek Road and the elevated expressway at Weepahwahdeerangsit Road as usual.

Much of the military’s security activities now are aimed at making sure military units loyal to Thaksin do not try to cause trouble or create a provocative incident, as well as maintaining general law and order in a time of uncertain authority. In the past Thaksin has proved himself to be decisive and cunning in his political dealings far beyond what is expected for a traditional Thai politician. There will be concern that Thaksin will not give up easily if there is any way to strike back. As Thaksin allies are accounted for throughout the country, fears for confrontation should be diminished.

The Thai military has had a dismal record of governing after coups and this must certainly be making generals think twice before every move they make.
* There will be fears for the Thai economy if the Shin Corp buyout deal is halted or reversed and this could have severe consequences for the Thai baht valuation. How hard the military decides to go after Thaksin and his assets will be key.
* TRT contains the brightest and most ambitious of Thailand ruling classes including local strongmen and business tycoons. These people will be anxious to see how deeply the military sword will cut into TRT ranks in terms of arrests and investigations for profiteering. Who, if anyone, might be barred from future political life will also be watched closely.

The nature of the junta’s plans should be known by midday Bangkok time as there is a meeting at 9:00am with university presidents, permanent secretaries of ministries, and other key government bureaucrats for an expected explanation of the military government’s plans.